Protests that stopped development of the Dakota Access Pipeline on Dec. 4 means that even more crude will be moved, day and night for years and year and years, by rail.  Tanker cars that will will roll at high speed through towns, villages, cities, neighbourhoods, street crossings, river valleys and farmland, putting millions at risk.

Shippers were expecting to move an additional 570,000 barrels of Bakken crude each day via pipeline in 2017, but if the pipeline isn’t there,  rail is likely the only other option. Because of the lack of currently available pipeline capacity, rail already comprises nearly 30 per cent of total Bakken crude export, but has the capacity to, and will likely expand to carry 65%.

Increases in crude-by-rail transport results in increases in rail incidents involving crude spills, with about 140 in 2014 compared to only one accident in 2006.  The rise in accidents followed a surge in daily rail volumes moving more than 25 million barrels a month for part of  2014.  In North Dakota alone, there were several accidents involving crude rail cars, six in 2015 and five in 2014.  In 2016, 750,000 gallons from 26 rail cars in Oregon leaked into the Colombia River Gorge.  Crude moves on existing railroads that were not planned with this in mind, they preferentially occupy convenient topography, particularly river valleys that make accidents more likely to pollute waterways.

These events pale in comparison to other high-profile accidents that involve the loss of  property and life, such as the 2013 explosion that killed 47 people in Lac-Megantic, Que.  More stringent regulations for rail are welcome, but more trains, more cars, more often will lead to more derailments and catastrophic accidents.

Yes, oil spills from pipelines occur, and they are ugly and noxious and polluting, but they can be cleaned up.  And yes, they occur more frequently from pipelines than rail cars.  In 2014, the frequency of crude spills from pipelines was about 62% greater than from rail.  But rail transport brings a greater chance of serious accidents, leaks and flammable explosions that are risks to real people, as well as to the environment.  Ultimately pipelines are more efficient, their locations are planned, they more effective, cheaper and they are safer, they don’t kill people

Production is currently down, Bakken oil production is about one million barrels per day or about 70,000 bpd above current pipeline capacity.  But American will continue to increases production and lessen their reliance on imports.  OPEC’s decision to cut production will further stabilize prices and encourage development and exploration.  The Bakken is a tremendous resource.  The near-future will see increased Bakken oil production.   It will grow, perhaps significantly.

Background

The 1,885-kilometre Dakota Access Pipeline is slated to run from western North Dakota to Illinois, and has been the subject of protests for months from Native American and environmental activists concerned about leaks and contamination of water supply.  There was a large 2013 oil spill near Mandan, ND, a city about 64 kilometres north of the proposed route of the Dakota Access pipeline.

Composed from stories by Liz Hampton Reuters/Globe and Mail, and data from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Administration http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/, and from http://dot111.info/ which documents the staggering increase in oil spills via rail.